A Mixed Bag of February Results
RPI has gone 2-2-2 over this recent stretch as just 4 games remain
After the frustrating Mayor’s Cup, which was the last recap we wrote, RPI has experienced some up and down play, resulting in a 2-2-2 record over the stretch. Most of the analytics indicate that the Engineers were outplayed over this stretch, but some strong goaltending and late game heroics in the Freakout allowed them to salvage some much-needed ECAC points. The Engineers remain in the hunt for ECAC Playoff home ice but will need a strong push over the final two weeks. Let’s pick back up where we left off and analyze the past 3 weeks.
At Brown and Yale
RPI went on the road to start this stretch with a weekend at Brown and Yale. They pulled out a 3-1 victory over Brown on Friday thanks to some strong goaltending from Jack Watson but lost in a shootout Saturday at Ingalls. Jakob Lee returned to the lineup for RPI on Friday and immediately made his presence felt with the first goal of the game. Austin Heidemann doubled the lead, and Brad McNeil added an empty net goal for what looked like Watson’s first shutout of the year, before Brown added one with just 14 seconds left. RPI had a real chance to gain some momentum if they were to knock off Yale, and for a while it looked like they would as the only goal early on came from Tyler Hotson. Yale found the equalizer in the 3rd though, before controlling the overtime and winning in the 4th shootout round. RPI made the choice to use two defensemen in the 3v3 and it backfired as Yale hit a post and carried play to the shootout. RPI was strong for the first 10 minutes or so of this game, but Yale fought back and made it a competitive hockey game. All in all, it was a relatively successful weekend for the Engineers picking up 4 out of 6 points on the road.
Vs Cornell and Colgate
The Engineers returned home to face Cornell and Colgate on Freakout weekend but were only able to muster 1 out of the 6 points. Cornell was always going to present a challenge for RPI, and they lived up to the hype with a complete performance. Jack Watson did well to keep this game at just 4-1, as the analytics tabbed Cornell for 5.2 expected goals. It was never a game that RPI was expected to win, and with some help from Watson they were firmly in it through most of the 3rd period. Freakout night did not disappoint, with Matt Murley in the house and a great crowd, RPI played one of their better games of the season. Colgate led most of the way in a high scoring game, but after a failed shot at the empty net, Tyler Hotson picked up a puck and scored on a 2 on 1 as the Field House erupted. Seriously, that was the loudest I have heard it in a long, long time. RPI had numerous chances in the overtime including a Jakob Lee shot that hit the post, but Colgate took it in a shootout.
https://x.com/RPI_Hockey/status/1756502540143788169?s=20
https://x.com/mattmurley19/status/1756501380477440505?s=20
At Princeton and Quinnipiac
RPI earned a road split this weekend in the way you would expect, with a win over Princeton and a loss to Quinnipiac. However, the analytics were not at all what you would expect, as RPI was dominated by Princeton but played Quinnipiac alright. I will take a deep dive into the analytics from these games in the next section, but it is a fair assessment to say Jack Watson stole RPI a win on Friday. Similar to the Cornell game, nobody expected RPI to steal a win at Quinnipiac, all you could hope for was a competitive effort. The Engineers got on the board first in this one with a Max Smolinski goal, but it was pretty much all Bobcats after that. I was not a huge fan of the quality of play this weekend, but RPI did get away with 3 points which was about as much as you could have asked for.
Analytics Breakdown
I chose to highlight some pretty simple statistics here just to investigate a bit deeper than the record. Let’s start at the top with goal production, which has been a strength all year. The shooting percentage has consistently been excellent and RPI has converted their scoring chances all year long. Goals against on the surface does not look great at 3.5 per game over this stretch, but that is why underlying metrics paint a much more vivid picture. Both the goals and goals against categories are much better than the expected statistics, which implies that finishing and goaltending has been much better than play-driving. This goes hand-in-hand with Corsi, which shows that RPI is getting outshot more often than they are not. I suppose the positive is that they have been opportunistic with their scoring and have gotten good goaltending of late, but the negative is that possession is still not where it needs to be. Despite the outliers from Princeton and Cornell, if your NxG is almost -2, you can’t expect to have a .500 record. RPI will need to possess the puck better and prevent scoring chances in order to have success over the final stretch.
RPI has 3 very manageable games remaining in the regular season and one real challenge on the road at Cornell, a building where they have had some success in the past. It will be imperative for them to possess the puck and limit scoring chances if they want to finish up the regular season strong. Let’s Go Red!