Do You Believe in Miracles?
Previewing RPI's quarterfinal matchup with the reigning champs
Well, the Engineers pulled off the surprise upset over 5th seeded Clarkson on Saturday. And their reward is? Oh, the reigning national champions of course.
The odds of RPI pulling out a series win are low, but one win or even just a competitive series would be considered a successful weekend for the program. The more quarterfinal series the team reaches, the more they improve their odds to break the Lake Placid drought that has hung in the balance for over 20 years. This will be a tough one, but if the Engineers play the way they did last weekend, they will have a chance.
Team Breakdown
They’re the reigning champs for a reason! Quinnipiac has had a nice follow up season after last year’s success and are arguably better at forward and defense. The one place they took a step back was in net, because despite a nice year from Vinny Duplessis, no one is competing with Yaniv Perets. The Corsi and xG are pretty impressive, Quinnipiac has clearly built a model to dominate games. The one area that the Bobcats are slightly worse in is the special teams, where they sit in the upper-middle part of the country. RPI’s Corsi Against has improved as the season has gone on, which has definitely led to more success recently.
The average Net Expected Goals for the two meetings this season was just about -1.5 for RPI, meaning that Quinnipiac would be expected to win by a goal and a half. RPI did not get great goaltending in either matchup, so I believe if they do it will definitely be a close series. Quinnipiac did not dominate RPI the way they did to so many other teams, so perhaps it is an indicator that the Engineers matchup well. Additionally, if RPI can bring the same game they had last weekend, it will be competitive.
Roster Breakdown
First things first, let’s table set where the Engineers health stands going into the series. I am going to assume Jake Lee will not be available, as it appeared he suffered an ugly injury last Saturday. We have not seen Regula in weeks, and Sutter suited up last weekend but looked 60% at best. Jake Gagnon did return so let’s assume Muzzatti and Gagnon will go, and Regula/Lee will not.
Quinnipiac just has so much talent on their roster, it is really a testament to the job Rand Pecknold has done in Hamden. Collin Graf is one of the best players in the country and has a case for the Hobey Baker. Davis Pennington was an excellent find by Pecknold, and Mason Marcellus is undoubtedly the rookie of the year. The entire top-9 is incredibly dangerous, and the defense is deep and balanced. RPI is pretty well balanced up front, but the defensive numbers are the deficiencies. RPI could use a good weekend from the experienced pair of Sertti and Agnew. Smolinski has come on really strong late in the year, as has Goffredo. The Engineers will have to break pucks out and secure zone time to hold off the Bobcat attack.
Keys to the Series:
Watson’s A Game
Jack Watson has been our guy for a few years now, and there have been quite a few flashes and stretches of brilliance. The 3rd period last weekend was absolutely one of them. RPI will need Watson’s best game to show up in Hamden this weekend, because the odds are in favor of Quinnipiac pressuring him heavily. There is not much room for error and the Engineers cannot afford an off night in net.
At least even on special teams
Special teams have been a weakness this year, but Quinnipiac isn’t dominant either despite their status as a top program. The Bobcats will be tough 5-on-5, but if RPI can chip in a few powerplay goals they will really benefit. The Engineers were 4/4 on the PK last weekend in Potsdam. They will look to keep this going on Friday.
Score opportunistically
RPI’s offense has largely been predicated on a quick striking attack, represented through their high shooting percentage. I would be surprised to see them muster 40 shots against Quinnipiac, so converting the chances they have will be essential.
Play together
Securing the victory last weekend over Clarkson was a huge weight lifted off the shoulders of the players and coaching staff. In a sense, they are playing with house money this weekend as big underdogs. It will take a complete team effort to win the series this weekend, and the guys will have to pick each other up through the highs and lows of the series.
Stay out of the box
Quinnipiac has the #2 ranked even-strength Corsi in the country, meaning they dominate possession of the puck. Often, this can lead to tired legs and lazy penalties like a hold or a trip. The Engineers did a great job limiting zone time last weekend by breaking the puck out, and more of the same will be necessary to win this weekend. It will be important to move their feet on defense and stay away from taking bad penalties, leading to PP chances for the Bobcats.
This weekend will be a tough test for the Engineers, but a tough battle against the reigning champions would show a lot of toughness and connectedness.
Well, we started this trend last week and I don’t see any reason to stop now. After all, only 8 more wins to be national champions.
Let’s Go Red.