Reviewing the Northeastern Series and Where RPI Stands at the End of November

RPI tied and suffered an ugly loss against Northeastern this weekend

RPI defenseman Nick Strom carries the puck into the zone against Northeastern (photo: RPI Athletics)

Saturday

RPI continued its slate of Hockey East non-conference games with a couple of weekend afternoon matchups against Northeastern. And while the blowout in the Sunday game mars the weekend (more on that later), the first matchup gave us some good back-and-forth action and an overall solid performance from RPI.  Nothing special (the game ended in a tie after all), but my takeaway from it is that the team clearly has more to offer than what some of the games earlier in the season might have suggested.

Northeastern have the more talented roster and were the better team for the majority of the game. But you combine good goaltending from Cherepak with a timely powerplay goal from Gagnon to give the team some momentum and you end up with a very real chance of winning the game in the third. Unfortunately for RPI, it just wasn’t quite enough to nab the game-winner.

Data via Instat Hockey

Here’s a quick look at the time on ice in all different phases of the game:

We don’t get to see as much of the penalty kill usage here since Northeastern scored 29 seconds into their one man-advantage of the night. But you can clearly see the two powerplay units at work and their usage throughout the night.

Finally, a quick look at some of the advanced stats on the night. Here is a brief recap of the three we are focusing on here:

• ixG (Individual Expected Goals) – how many expected goals a particular player has generated from their shots. Measures individual offense.

• xGF% (On-Ice Expected Goals For Percentage) – what percentage of the total expected goals when a certain player is on the ice are for their team. Shows which players are helping to create more quality chances than the opponent.

• CF% (On-Ice Corsi For Percentage) – what percentage of the total shots that happen when a certain player is on the ice come from their team. Measures puck possession.

RPI’s top-six was better at puck possession in this game, but the majority of the team still lost the shot quality (xGF%) battle. Only Muzzatti and Hotson were on the ice for more quality chances for RPI than against.

Sunday

The game on Sunday did not go nearly as well as the game Saturday and was a pretty disappointing 9-2 loss. Unfortunately, these games happen. Seemingly every shot finds the back of the net, and once they got down big, I can see how it’s tough to reverse course and get back into it. I’m reminded of the 11-3 game against Cornell 2 years ago. That 2021-22 team ultimately ended up finishing 6th in the league and had a pretty good playoff run that was a game away from Lake Placid. I don’t think this game says anything super deep about RPI’s long-term goals for the season; it’s just one that got away from them.

Data via InStat Hockey

Clearly Northeastern outplayed RPI, but it wasn’t to a 9-2 degree. The xG was 4.57 - 2.90, and a lot of Northeastern’s xG came on the power play. The Corsi and Fenwick also go along with this. A nearly 60-40 Corsi margin for Northeastern is good, but it’s not crazy domination. Additionally, the transition numbers for entries and breakouts are exactly even for both.

Overall, RPI deserved to lose, but the game got away from them, and they were undisciplined and spent too much time in the box. They do have plenty to work on, but I don’t think this game changed much for the long-term outlook of the year.

At 2-7-1, Where Does RPI Stand?

There has been some frustration in the fanbase as RPI has gotten off to this sluggish start, so I wanted to use this this space to take a reasonable look at the good, the bad and the ugly. Let’s start with the positives:

1. 5v5 play has been solid

   Sunday’s blowout loss skewed the numbers quite a bit, but after Saturday’s game RPI’s 5v5 goal differential for the season was even. Considering the schedule they have played, this is honestly pretty good. This team has proven they have the talent to score at even strength, which is a definite positive.

2. Scoring has come from up and down the lineup

   RPI has not gotten huge production from any single player, but scoring has come from all four forward lines. The guys you would expect to be producing (Muzzatti, Lee, Brushett) have chipped in, but production has also come from surprises like Jake Gagnon (team-leading 5 Goals) and Danny Ciccarello.

Now let’s take a look at what has held this team back:

1. The defense is still a weakness

   The Engineers returned a lot of scoring from last year, so the hope was that an improved defense would propel this group to a strong season. However, the defense has struggled a lot thus far with turnovers, breakouts, and tracking. Until this gets cleaned up, RPI will have a hard time keeping the puck out of its net.

2. No one has emerged as the primary goaltender

   Similar to the defense, the preseason expectation was for the goaltending to improve from last year. Jack Watson has been inconsistent and injured, and Carson Cherepak has shown flashes, but has not been dependable enough night in and night out.

3. Special Teams have been a mess

   Nearly 2 months into the 2023-24 season, RPI is second to last nationally in both Penalty Kill and Power Play percentage. It goes without saying that this is not up to anyone’s standards and will continue to hold the Engineers back until it improves. Luckily, the only place to go from here is up.

   Putting this all together, it is easy to see why this start to the season has been seen as a disappointment. I wouldn’t even necessarily argue that it has been, but there are a few things to remember that should give the RPI fan some peace of mind. First, we have consistently beaten the drum that the non-conference schedule is a gauntlet, and the performance of Maine, BC, and PC further reinforce this. RPI can take some solace in the fact that they have seen the toughest competition out there already. Second, the 5v5 play has been good enough to keep them in games against good teams, so if they can just improve on special teams, they should see some wins show up. Finally, they are only 2-2 in the league, with a pretty solid win on the road against Clarkson. ECAC play has barely gotten started, and while every game counts, RPI is not at the point as a program to be considered for an at-large bid, so ECAC games are really what matters. This weekend will be a challenging test against Quinnipiac and Princeton, and a chance for RPI to get back on track at home. Let’s Go Red!