Preview: Mayor's Cup
RPI looks to bring the cup back to Troy, and we debut our new analytics numbers and graphics!
It’s time for the Mayor’s Cup! The big yearly rivalry game in Albany is back on Saturday, and RPI looks to reclaim the cup after Union stole a 2-0 win last year despite RPI dominating the play.
Before we get into all that though, we have our special work that we hinted at last week to talk about!
Analytics Primer
Brendan and I have gotten access to the advanced stats software, Instat, which now gives us the ability to see all kinds of data to use and post about. We will be using some of it to make graphics for previews and recaps, among other miscellaneous articles.
With that out of the way, I want to introduce you to this analytics primer written by our friends at Tech Hockey Guide, the fan blog for Michigan Tech. We’ve been throwing out a bunch of lingo for advanced analytics all year with Brendan’s tracking, but let’s take a step back here to explain this stuff because we’re going to be using it more now. Read the primer to learn what each stat means and why they matter.
Team Breakdowns
Before the team breakdown, let me just note that all data is at even strength except where specified. Additionally, all stats are per 60 minutes. So in the offense section, you have Corsi For per 60, xG For per 60, Goals For per 60, etc. In the defense section: Corsi Against per 60, xG Against per 60, Goals Against per 60, etc. Lastly, the total section has the overall percentages of Corsi%, xG%, and Goals%.
The two teams appear to be evenly matched overall, which should make for a great rivalry game. RPI might have a very slight upper hand, but it’s close.
RPI’s strength happens to be Union’s great weakness, corsi. RPI has been pretty solid all year at controlling puck possession on both ends, and it has shown itself in the corsi numbers. Conversely, Union is one of the worst teams in the country for corsi, and they really struggle with possession. Look for RPI to control possession with the way this matchup appears.
The Engineer’s also have the advantage in xG. They create more offense with more chances, are better at keeping opponents out of the dangerous areas, and overall, win more of the scoring chance battle. Union is one of the worst teams in the country for this statistic as well, more often than not losing the scoring chance battle. If this can hold true on Saturday, RPI has a very good chance of winning this game.
The great equalizer though is in Union’s favor. RPI has struggled with finishing at even strength this season and also struggled with goaltending, which neutralizes their advantages in corsi and xG in this game. Union’s finishing is top 20 in the country, so even if they’re not generating a lot of chances that are dangerous, they’re still scoring. The goaltending has been mediocre for them at even strength, but that still gives them the advantage over the Engineers. The key to Saturday’s game will likely be which team can get the saves they need or snipe one past the goalie.
Lastly, special teams can be pretty important too. The power play is in RPI’s advantage. While they appear to not generate dangerous chances on it, they still score a lot and have a top 20 unit. I actually think the xG number there is a bit misleading because it appears to be by design. On the top PP unit, everything gets run through Max Smolinski, and they seem to prioritize him shooting the puck from the point. Smolinski excels at walking the blue line with his skating, has the skill to move the puck around the zone, and the smarts and shot to get his pucks through traffic and on net. He’s able to get a lot of rebounds when he shoots on the power play, which has led to a lot of goals for RPI. Point shots rate pretty low by xG because of how far they are from the net, but Smolinski has really made them dangerous for RPI even when they don’t go in.
The two penalty kill units have struggled this season, and neither really seems to have an advantage there. Not too much to discuss with that.
Each team clearly has its strengths and weaknesses. For RPI, that’s puck possession and scoring chances on both ends. For Union, it’s finishing and goaltending. Overall, this looks even.
Roster Breakdowns
Before the roster breakdown, let me explain what game score is. Game score is a statistic created by Dom Luszczyszyn who wanted to mirror basketball’s game score statistic to measure how well players did in specific games. He created it in 2016, and you can read that article to see the methodology and stats included. He then modified it in 2019 and has mostly kept it the same since (NOTE: The Athletic has a paywall). For those who can’t access the modifications, here’s a brief summary. He changed shots on goal to individual xG to better capture the chances each player has. He also changed corsi to xG, and increased the weights of both xG and GF/GA while on the ice to make both more important. This was done to measure defensive performance better and put more of an emphasis on play-driving.
Each player’s average game score is shown above with the shading representing their percentile. One drawback is that it doesn’t factor in quality of competition, so Sertti, Klee, and Hallbauer all have low game scores. They all face opponents’ best lines and players every night, so their numbers don’t end up as good. No analytic is perfect; they’re just tools to look at to give you more information.
For the comparison between the two teams, RPI appears to be the stronger team here. Their top 6 for starters is much better. The combined game score for them is 1.7 while Union’s is 1.1. That advantage grows even larger with RPI’s strong 3rd line of Evans-Beaton-Gagnon. They add 0.9 combined game score, but Union’s 3rd line has negative game score, combining to -0.4. The 4th lines are fairly even, but RPI has much more firepower at the top of the lineup and depth that extends to the 3rd line to go along with it.
The defensemen also seem to be pretty heavily in favor of the Engineers. Only Cal Mell on Union has a positive game score, and half of their defensemen are below -0.5 game score. No RPI players have game scores that low, but Union has 4 total in the lineup below that number. On RPI’s side, by game score, Smolinski, Sertti, Strom and Klee all look solid. Even with Hallbauer and Agnew having low scores, they would still be in Union’s top 4 defensemen.
Overall, the lineup definitely favors RPI here, adding to the narrative that RPI is probably the slightly stronger team. Like I said earlier though, goaltending and finishing are major factors that favor Union, so this is shaping up to be a really good game. Let’s hope our Engineers can play their game and win the trophy!