Preview: RPI at Maine
The Engineers open their season on the road at the rowdy Alfond Arena
RPI begins their brutal non-conference schedule with a road trip to Orono to take on the Maine Black Bears on Thursday and Friday. It’ll be an exciting 2 games to start the regular season in what looks like near sell-out crowds for Maine’s homecoming weekend. The Alfond is historically one of the toughest places to play in college hockey regardless of how good Maine is and provides a big home-ice advantage. Last year, they were 11-7-1 at home. The Engineers will have to rise to the challenge.
Maine Team Outlook
Maine is in year 3 of their rebuild under RPI alum Ben Barr, and it is going very well so far. Year 1 was a write-off (as is usual in rebuilds) with a 7-22-4 record, but last year, they took a big step forward to 15-16-5 and were 31st in the pairwise.
This year, optimism is high among Maine fans that the team will take another step and be competitive in Hockey East and the national picture. I can’t blame them based on the talent they have brought in and the talent they return. They could be an NCAA tournament team if they hit their ceiling and things go right.
Last year, Maine had excellent underlying metrics. They had a 54.5% corsi (12th in the country) and a 55.4% xG% (12th). They had great goaltending too, but they struggled finishing chances. I don’t think that will be a problem this year with the talent they now have, which is why Maine could be a scary team.
Biggest Threats
Let’s take a look at the lineup from Maine’s exhibition last weekend.
To start with, that top line is extremely dangerous. Lynden Breen had 21 goals and 36 points last year to lead the team. Some of the talent that I alluded to is here with the Nadeau brothers. Bradly had a record-breaking year in the BCHL last year with 113 points in 54 games en route to being chosen in the first round by Carolina. Josh had 110 points in 54 games on the same line as him. Last weekend, this line had all 3 of Maine’s goals against UNH if you needed any more evidence of their potency.
The second line is nothing to sneeze at either. Poisson had 26 points, Renwick had 20 and Villeneuve-Houle had 19 last year. The 3 of them give Maine more scoring depth now that they won’t be the primary focus of their opponents. The top 6 is very good.
Defensively, Breazeale leads the way with his 29 points across his first two seasons. Arnott and Holt both had 11 points as freshmen, which is pretty good. Hopkins is another Penticton Vee who is really talented and should make an immediate impact after he had almost a point per game last year as a defenseman.
Last, but certainly not least (and arguably the best player on the roster), Victor Ostman returns for his senior year after turning down NHL offers in the summer. Ostman had a 0.918 SV% last year and this season will likely be one of college hockey’s best goaltenders. He will be very difficult to score on.
RPI Projected Lineup
The top line should be pretty set. Hotson and Tinling played together all of last weekend, and in the Guelph game, Brushett joined them. The line looked pretty good and had some chemistry, so we expect them to stay together.
The 2nd line will come down to who plays LW with Muzzatti and Heidemann. We have Budy slotted there after his good game against Guelph, and he seemed to fit in well with them.
The 3rd line also is mostly set with Beaton and Gagnon essentially locks at their spots. We expect Evans to play with them since he seems like the obvious fit as a 3rd line scorer.
The 4th line is where the most unpredictability is. To start with, I don’t see how there’s any way you can bench Payant. He was great last weekend and showed he has the chops to be a lineup regular.
For the wings to go with him, Brackett probably has the inside track for one of them due to his defensive ability, speed, forechecking and experience. However, I wouldn’t be surprised if Nykanen or even Sullivan slotted in here. Nykanen had a great game on Saturday against Union where I honestly thought he looked better than Brackett. He did sit out on Sunday, so it’s possible he’s injured.
Sullivan looked really good on Sunday and showed his natural talent with great skill and intelligence. He had the puck on his stick a lot. He’s still probably not ready to be a lineup regular, but once he gets comfortable, he’s going to be a beast, and I could see the coaching staff wanting to play him to accelerate that.
For the other wing, we broke down Brown in our recap. I think he played well enough to earn a spot in the lineup. He looked to be very improved, and I think he fits well as the RW on the 4th line.
We do not expect Lee to be in the lineup. Sitting out both exhibitions means he is definitely injured.
The top 4 is pretty much a no brainer. Strom and Smolinski will stay together with their two way games and natural chemistry. Sertti will be the #1 again, and Regula looked extremely capable in a top 4 role and should be paired with him.
Matta looked the best of the remaining 3 LD. I think he and Agnew are a lock to be in the lineup, so they slot in as the 3rd pairing.
The final spot comes down to Davies and Ardanaz. Both looked pretty good last weekend, but I think Davies was just a little bit better. It’s worth noting Davies did not play on Sunday, which could indicate an injury. If he’s injured then obviously Ardanaz would slot in. Based on last weekend, I’d be perfectly comfortable playing either of them, which is a good problem to have.
The goaltending shouldn’t be a surprise. Watson was the favorite coming into the season, and after allowing a goal on the first shot he saw against Union, he was totally lights out. I thought he looked great the entire weekend. Cherepak was great against Union but just okay against Guelph, so I don’t think it was enough to take the #1 role with how well Watson played.
Summary
Maine is a tough opponent, and this is a really tough road weekend to start off with. With how strong Maine looks this year, even 1 win will be hard to come by. A split would definitely be a good result.
Luckily, RPI is also improved with much better depth. As you could tell from the lineup prediction, there’s no one that I would be uncomfortable playing in the lineup, and I could not honestly say that last year. The players fighting for lineup roles all played well at various points during the exhibitions, giving Coach Smith some tough lineup decisions for the two games.
Let’s Go Red!