Preview: RPI at Providence
RPI takes on #10 Providence in final non-conference tune up
After a difficult weekend up in Orono, the Engineers will return to the road for two more Hockey East clashes this weekend. RPI will start the weekend Friday at Boston College, before traveling down I-95 to face Providence on Saturday night. RPI hasn’t faced Providence in quite a while, but the Friars used to be an ECAC member and was the team that RPI beat in the 1985 National Championship game. Yesterday Stephen broke down what you can expect from the BC matchup, so let’s take a look at what you can expect from the #10 Providence Friars on Saturday night.
Providence Team Outlook:
Providence had a disappointing season last year, finding themselves in the top-10 for the majority of the first half, before losing steam in January and February which cost them an NCAA Tournament berth. To make matters worse, the Friars said goodbye to co-captains Parker Ford (26 points) and Max Crozier (24 points), as well as arguably their most talented player, Brett Berard, who signed with the Rangers last spring. However, they have jumped out of the gate this season, with a competitive split on the road against Michigan, followed by a dominant effort against a weak Stonehill team last weekend. They do host Denver on Friday night which has the potential for some fireworks, so RPI could be a bit of a trap game for them.
In their first 3 games Providence is scoring at will, averaging 5 goals per game. Their powerplay is converting 1 in every 3 tries, so RPI will really need to clean up the defense before this one. Providence doesn’t have the same level of NHL-bound talent that BC does, but they more than make up for with depth at both forward and defense. They also have an extremely capable goalie, Boston Bruins draft pick Philip Svedeback, who I will touch more on later.
However, some of their underlying metrics, specifically Net xG (expected goals – expected goals allowed), indicate that they are due for a bit of regression. As I mentioned before, Providence is averaging 5 goals per game and only allowing 2.7 per game, which nets out a goal differential of 2.3. Despite this margin, their Net xG is only 0.16, which shows that Providence has probably gotten a bit lucky early this season.
Key Players:
Philip Svedeback (#35, G): Svedeback is probably the biggest piece the Friars returned from last year, as he took over the net as a freshman and didn’t look back, posting an excellent 2.18 GAA. He is off to an even better start this year, with an impressive 1.36 xG per goal conceded, meaning for every goal he has allowed, statistically 1.36 goals would be expected, so he has been a standout thus far.
Bennett Schimek (#23, W): Schimek is another sophomore off to a strong start this season, posting 2 goals and 2 assists in 3 games. He has solid underlying metrics across the board and is a guy that PC relies on to carry play in all three zones.
Luke Krys (#2, D): Krys traveled across town from Brown to Providence, where he has wasted no time transitioning his game, picking up Hockey East defensemen of the week and leading the team in points so far. He has held down the top pairing with Cam McDonald effectively and has filled a big hole on the back end for Providence.
What to Watch For
Does Svedeback even play?
As I mentioned before, Providence has a big matchup with Denver on Friday night (which I will be in attendance for), and they also open Hockey East play next weekend. Svedeback has started all three games so far, and surely will start Friday against Denver. This could be an opportunity for Providence coach Nate Leaman to get freshman Marcus Brannman a start, after only seeing a few minutes of action against Stonehill so far.
Can RPI improve its possession stats from last weekend?
Maine gave RPI a really tough time last weekend when it came to breakouts and possessing the puck, so RPI will need to improve to fare any better against the Friars. Providence is solid off the cycle, and they control possession well, meaning that cleaner breakouts will be required for RPI to generate sustained offense.
Can the Engineers generate some positive momentum entering league play?
If you remember a year ago, RPI jumped out to a 4-0 start after beating several Atlantic Hockey teams, even generating some buzz nationally. This turned out to be a bit of fool’s gold, as the rest of the season did not carry this same level of success. Coach Smith opted for an extremely difficult non-conference schedule this season, which certainly challenges the team in a different way. I think it is important for the team to gather some momentum and play these two perennial powerhouses close this weekend, if only just for some confidence inside the locker room.
Let’s hope for some improved play Friday night at Boston College and Saturday at Providence as the team looks to ramp up with league play around the corner. I’ll be in attendance for this one on Saturday, so keep an eye out for updates!