Preview: RPI vs Cornell

RPI enters tonight's game still alive for home ice, but the odds are slim

Photo: Cornell Athletics

Well that was a disappointing ending to the game last night. After fighting to tie it back up 3-3 against Colgate, and drawing a penalty with 30 seconds left, RPI didn’t score on the powerplay, and Colgate scored after it expired to take the game in OT. You really have to take advantage of that and score on the PP to win. Instead, RPI was really passive on the power play and only had a couple shots after passing it around. You have to play with more urgency in that situation.

That didn’t ruin RPI’s chances at getting into the top 8 though, not totally. They’re 3 points behind Brown and have the tiebreaker locked up. Beat Cornell in regulation, and Brown loses in regulation, and they’ve got it. Obviously a lot easier said than done.

For the teams below them, RPI locked up 10th last night, but they’re tied with Princeton and have that tiebreaker locked up as well. They just need to match or beat Princeton’s points tonight to clinch 9th. The simplest way for that to happen is for Clarkson to beat Princeton in regulation, and then it doesn’t matter what RPI does against Cornell.

Don’t let Cornell’s place in the standings fool you; they are still an elite team. They are elite in virtually every metric but have been incredibly unlucky. Ian Shane has been a rock for them his entire career, but for whatever reason, he has struggled mightily this year with a 0.891 SV%. It has really cost them; despite being the best team in the country at limiting shots against and chances against, their even strength defense is 20th in the country. While that’s still good, that’s a big difference that adds up.

Another big issue has been their power play. Cornell has been putrid on the power play with an 11.5% success rate. That has limited their total offense despite being excellent at scoring at even strength. If the power play was even just average, they’d be scoring at least 0.3 more goals per game. Again, those seemingly small differences add up.

RPI is going to need their best effort of the season to come out and win this one. Luckily, when they played a few weeks ago at Cornell, RPI actually played well overall. They won the xG battle 4.5 to 3.9 and lost a close game. They’ll need that type of effort and then some to win this one and have a chance at home ice. Let’s Go Red!