Preview: RPI vs Dartmouth
The Engineers return home needing to pick up some points to earn home ice
RPI returns to the HFH this weekend for their final home series of the regular season. This time out, it will be Dartmouth and Harvard. RPI was swept on the road by these two in January at a time when they were actually playing pretty well heading into it. They will be looking for revenge at a time where they really need to pick up points.
ECAC Breakdown
Before getting into the normal part of the preview, let’s just take a look at the ECAC standings now, and then talk about what RPI needs to do in its last 4 games.
Right now, RPI sits in 10th (they have the tiebreaker over Brown), but they are only 2 games and 6 points back of Union who is in 5th. That’s a lot of ground to make up with only 4 games left, but mathematically, RPI is still alive for spots 4-12. Realistically, 5th is probably their ceiling.
The breakdown for RPI's likely finish goes like this:
Win 4/4 - 5th
Win 3/4 - 7th or 8th
Win 2/4 - 9th or 10th
Win 1/4 - 11th
Win 0/4 - 12th
I think winning 4/4 is out of the question with a road weekend at Colgate and Cornell on the docket for next week. That puts more pressure on this weekend. In order to win 3/4 and get home ice, RPI needs to sweep this weekend.
Team Breakdowns
Dartmouth is mostly the same team as they were a month ago, but there’s a few noticeable ways they’ve changed.
They have improved their xG numbers at lot, firstly. Dartmouth has had a really good month of generating more scoring chances and also limiting them. Their total xGF% is now over 50% for the season meaning overall, they are now at the point where they have generated more quality chances at even strength than they have given up. A month ago they were at 47.4%.
Another area of improvement has been the power play. That actually applies to both teams. RPI and Dartmouth were ranked 54 and 52, respectively, in PP goals per 60 minutes prior to the first matchup. Now, they are 43 and 38 and have had it clicking lately.
Outside of that, Dartmouth and RPI both look mostly the same from a month ago as you would expect this late in the year. Teams are not going to see their numbers change drastically at this stage of the season. You can refer back to the first preview if you want the full breakdown of Dartmouth.
Roster Breakdowns
Once again, the 2 rosters stack up pretty evenly. In terms of game score, RPI has better depth at the bottom of the lineup, but Dartmouth’s top players have played better. This is where the play driving difference comes into play again.
Luke Haymes has 25 points in 24 games as the top point scorer. I actually agree with game score though that CJ Foley is Dartmouth’s best player. He has 16 points in 25 games from the back end, and he has a +4 rating to go along with it. He’s been excellent both ways for them. It’s weird that they are now pairing him with their worst defenseman. Other key players include forwards Joey Musa and Cooper Flinton and defenseman Eric Charpentier.
This is a winnable game, and it’s at home at the most crucial point in the season. They need to bring their A game for this one. Let’s Go Red!