Preview: RPI vs Princeton
RPI looks to avenge their December loss PLUS an in-depth seeding breakdown
The final weekend of the regular season is here, and RPI can still finish anywhere from 6th to 11th in the standings. But before I get into scenarios, let’s breakdown the matchup with Princeton.
Team Breakdowns
Princeton isn’t an elite team at anything, but they do a lot of things very well. They are really good at controlling play and chances, but like RPI, they struggle with finishing and goaltending. They don’t struggle quite as much as RPI does in those areas, but it’s enough to turn their above average metrics into below average results in terms of goals.
One area where RPI definitely has the edge is special teams. Their power play is significantly more dangerous than Princeton’s, and Princeton also struggles on the penalty kill. The Engineers scored a whopping 4 power play goals on 8 man advantages in the first matchup this season, so they have shown how they can capitalize when given opportunities against the Tigers.
I would expect Princeton to control possession and chances at even strength. Considering the aforementioned struggles with finishing and goaltending by both teams though, it’s very difficult to predict who will end up with the upper hand here. If it ends up close, RPI’s special teams advantage will likely come into play. Not to mention, RPI plays much better at home, and this should be a big crowd with playoff home ice and seeding on the line.
Roster Breakdowns
Princeton may not be on Quinnipiac or Cornell’s level when it comes to star power and depth, but they’re a pretty good team.
Up front, they’re led by a dynamic top line. The Gorman brothers are two very different types of players with Liam being a big power forward and Brendan being a shifty and speedy playmaker, but their games complement each other very well.
Ian Murphy is building off of last year where he was nominated for ECAC Rookie of the Year with a great season. He has 22 points in 26 games and has been Princeton’s best player.
The depth scoring hasn’t been as formidable as the top line, but they definitely still have a solid all-around lineup. Only one forward, Mackenzie Merriman, has a negative game score, and I expect he’s mostly in the lineup due to injuries because he has only played in 9 games this year. Princeton also recently played freshman defenseman Brendan Wang at LW on the 4th line, so I’d be surprised if they weren’t banged up.
Defensively, Princeton has a lot of balance with a lot of solid and good players and no real bad players, by game score at least. They might not have any superstars on the back end, but all 6 guys can play quality minutes, which is something that not too many teams have.
All-around this should be a pretty even game once you factor in the home ice crowd for RPI. Should be a good game to watch!
ECAC Seeding Breakdown
Here’s the seeding discussion as promised. RPI currently has a 70% chance at home ice with the current breakdown as follows:
6th - 1%
7th - 26%
8th - 42%
9th - 25%
10th - 5%
11th - <1%
First, let’s talk about the weekend at-large before talking about Friday specifically.
With the standings as they are, RPI can finish as high as 6th and as low as 11th. They control their own destiny for 7th place (i.e. if they sweep the weekend with 6 points, they are guaranteed 7th place). Here’s what they need over the weekend to get each spot, why, and the simplest clinching scenario:
6th - RPI needs to win both games in regulation AND Clarkson needs to lose both games in regulation.
The Engineers are down 5 points, and Clarkson owns the tiebreaker due to RPI’s win being in OT.
Simplest Clinching Scenario: RPI wins both games in regulation and Clarkson loses both games in regulation
7th - RPI needs 3 or 4 more points than Princeton on the weekend AND to match Union in points.
The Princeton tiebreaker will only be in RPI’s favor if they win in regulation, which would mean 3 points more would be fine; otherwise, RPI needs 4 points more than Princeton on the weekend.
RPI is pretty much guaranteed the Union tiebreaker if they match on points; the only way they can lose via tiebreaker is by winning both games in a shootout and Union winning both games in OT. Otherwise, RPI just needs to match or beat Union in points on the weekend.
Simplest Clinching Scenario: RPI beats Princeton in regulation and Union loses to Quinnipiac in regulation and Union beats Princeton in regulation
8th - RPI needs 3 or 4 more points than Princeton on the weekend OR to match Union in points.
Same explanations as above except RPI only needs to be ahead of one of the teams instead of both.
Simplest Clinching Scenario: RPI beats Princeton in regulation and Union loses to Quinnipiac
9th - [RPI needs 2 points on the weekend OR Yale to get less than 5 points] AND [RPI needs 3 points on the weekend OR Brown to get less than 4 points]. I added in the brackets for logic visualization since the scenarios are separate for the the two teams.
RPI is 4 points ahead of Yale and Brown, who are tied (Brown has that tiebreaker currently and will likely keep it). RPI has won the tiebreaker with Yale but lost it to Brown, which is why the points differ. Since RPI is ahead by 4 points, they only need to get 2 and 3 points on the weekend, respectively, to clinch being ahead of Yale and Brown. Yale and Brown also have essentially no margin for error in terms of losing their games. Brown can afford a single OT loss but only if RPI gets swept in regulation. Yale needs to sweep their weekend.
Simplest Clinching Scenario: Yale and Brown both lose in regulation on Friday
10th - RPI needs 2 points on the weekend OR Yale to get less than 5 points OR Brown to get less than 4 points.
Same explanations as above except RPI only needs to be ahead of one of the teams instead of both.
Simplest Clinching Scenario: Yale or Brown loses in regulation on Friday
For the 6-8 seeds, it’s important to remember that RPI has Quinnipiac for Saturday’s game. With how good Quinnipiac is playing this year as the #2 team in the country, it’s tough to see a win there, which makes Friday’s game against Princeton incredibly important.
Friday Breakdown
Now, let’s just focus on Friday and not the entire weekend. RPI can clinch 8th-10th on Friday, but they could also get eliminated from 6th and 7th. Let’s go over these clinching and elimination scenarios.
Clinching:
8th - RPI beats Princeton in regulation and Union loses to Quinnipiac
If Union lost in regulation, RPI would be 3 points ahead of Union and guaranteed to win the tiebreaker. If Union lost to Quinnipiac in OT, RPI would still clinch 8th because Union and Princeton play each other on Saturday. If Union doesn’t win that game in regulation, RPI would be at least tied with them but would own the tiebreaker as I said. If Union wins that game in regulation, they could potentially pass RPI in this scenario, but then, Princeton would be tied with RPI at best, and RPI takes over that tiebreaker by beating Princeton in regulation.
9th - There’s 11 different scenarios that I am definitely not going to list out. Basically, any scenario where Brown doesn’t pick up a point on RPI and Yale doesn’t pick up 2 points on RPI is one where RPI clinches.
10th - This one has 6 different scenarios. This time it’s any scenario where Brown doesn’t pick up a point on RPI or Yale doesn’t pick up 2 points on RPI.
If you want to see each scenario individually listed, here you go.
Elimination:
6th - RPI doesn’t beat Princeton in regulation or Clarkson doesn’t lose to Dartmouth in regulation
Not too much to say here. It would take a lot for RPI to get up to 6th place at this point.
7th - RPI loses to Princeton or RPI beats Princeton in OT/SO and Union beats Quinnipiac in regulation
If RPI loses to Princeton, they’d be at least 4 points behind them heading into Saturday night.
Scenario 2 is a little trickier. If that happened, RPI would be 2 points behind Princeton and 1 point behind Union. Since the two teams play each other on Saturday, RPI wouldn’t be able to move ahead of both. The closest they could get would be a 3-way tie from a regulation win over Quinnipiac and a Union OT/SO win over Princeton. However, remember that the Princeton tiebreaker will only be in RPI’s favor if they win that game in regulation, so they would wind up in 8th in this scenario.
If you’ve made it this far, thanks for reading this whole column with all the math, the tiebreakers, and the scenarios! I will not be posting the Quinnipiac preview until after the games finish on Friday, so I can do an updated standings breakdown. Let’s Go Red!!