RPI's Look at the ECAC Standings
What the Engineers need to do to get home ice
Hey everyone! I wanted to start this just apologizing for the recent lack of activity here. Chris is currently studying abroad in Europe and obviously unable to do any posts for that reason. Brendan is working on his masters while also working full time, so his time has been pretty limited as well. This has left just me, and I’ve been busier the past few weeks. On the bright side, my schedule will be much calmer after the weekend, and I’m looking forward to covering next week and the playoffs more in depth!
Instead of a traditional preview on the opponents this weekend, I wanted to do more of a look at the ECAC standings and where RPI is shaping up to land.
Currently, the Engineers sit in 9th place in the league, but the issue is it’s going to be difficult for them to move into home ice position. Teams 9-12 in the league are only separated by 2 points. RPI is only 1 point ahead of St. Lawrence and 2 points ahead of Yale and Princeton. Right now, they could really land anywhere in the bottom 4.
The reason it is difficult for them to move up is they are 5 points behind Brown in 8th and 6 points behind Harvard in 7th. With only 4 games left for each team (and thus 12 points max by going 4-0 in regulation), there’s not a whole lot of meat left on the bone. RPI’s schedule makes this even more challenging as well. All their remaining games are against teams in the top 7 in the league. Dartmouth, Harvard, Colgate, and Cornell are all good hockey teams. They are all vulnerable and quite beatable this year though, so it’s not as if all hope is lost.
Right now, if RPI lost every game remaining, it’d be about a 50-50 tossup between 11th and 12th. I think that’s unlikely, and just one win should be enough to put them in 10th with still a chance at being 11th depending on other results.
Ideally, RPI needs 3 wins in these last 4 games to put themselves at home to start the playoffs; very challenging but by no means impossible. Going 3/4 would give them a 60% chance at home ice, most likely putting them in 8th. There’d be a chance they still land in 9th if they got bad breaks, but it should be good enough for home ice.
Getting 2 wins would also be fine (just generally) because that will likely keep them in 9th, and there’s not much of a difference between 8 and 9 since you’re playing the same team either way. With the way RPI has played at home this year, maybe they even prefer being 9th and going on the road haha. In all seriousness though, the opponents would be identical between 8 and 9, so 2 or 3 wins will be fine. I’d feel best if they are playing Harvard or Brown if they’re on the road, and getting 9th will essentially guarantee that since I don’t see both teams surpassing Cornell.
Being 8 or 9 at least will also give them a better chance at avoiding Quinnipiac (who I feel is the only unbeatable team in a best 2 of 3 series) because if they won in the first round, then they would just need one upset in the other 3 games.
Lastly, if RPI can pull off going 4/4, they’d likely be 7th. Obviously, this is the best case scenario but pretty unlikely. This would guarantee they can avoid Quinnipiac if they make it to round 2.
Overall, my thought is 2 wins is the minimum needed in the next 4 games, 3 is ideal to get home ice, and beyond that would be gravy. It’s time for them to make a run to start out the playoffs with some momentum! Let’s Go Red!