A Look at RPI's Upcoming Offseason

Lots of questions face the program moving forward

Photo: RPI Athletics

RPI’s season came to an end on Friday night with a 5-2 loss at Harvard in the first round of the playoffs. This offseason will be the one where they are totally moved on from the core of Gagnon, Lee, Brackett, Beaton, and Watson that has made up the team for the last 4 seasons. They stuck it out during COVID and the nonsense that followed from the administration and made up the heart and soul of the team and the leadership group. I want to thank them for their dedication and commitment to the program, along with all the other graduates.

It was another trying season with injuries and poor play. There were some small flashes here and there and a good young core to build around. They were definitely better than last year with improvements in areas like puck possession, scoring chance generation, and the power play. The defense and goaltending did improve a bit, albeit marginally, but the PK was just as bad. Overall, the offense was improved by a good amount, but the defensive improvement was not much.

The improvement this year was not the type we were all hoping for obviously. Going from 12th to 10th and getting a couple more wins doesn’t really feel all that different. This offseason is vital to the program being on the right trajectory. Let’s talk about it.

Coaching Staff Thoughts

Obviously, we’re all well aware that a majority of fans want to see a coaching change after this season. Let’s not beat around the bush there. I get it; we’re all frustrated of the team being bad consistently for the past 2 decades with few good years mixed in. It’s been rough seeing the program decline to this.

First, in terms of what I think will happen, I’m not really sure. Last year, I could tell they were going to keep Coach Smith; this year, there’s not a strong indication or feeling one way or another. My gut is leaning slightly that they keep him. The only reason for that slight hunch is that the women’s team has had worse results and records under Coach Vines, and he is still their coach. It wouldn’t make much sense to me to keep him but fire Coach Smith just purely on a results basis. If there’s a bad locker room or culture, like what caused Seth Appert to get fired, that’s a different story, but there’s no indication of that being the case.

Now in terms of my opinion. I want to note that I’m not ever a “FIRE THE COACH” guy for any sport, pro or college. For example, as a Patriots fan, I didn’t want Belichick to get fired (as the coach at least), and I also thought Mayo should get a second year to prove himself. I think coaches are often the scapegoats for problems out of their control.

What is way more important than any individual year is the long term trajectory of the program and where it is headed. That’s how I would view making a decision here. I don’t think it’s as black and white as people think. What I like to do for stuff like this is to make arguments for and against it, and then I see what it looks like.

In favor of making a change:

• The program can’t seem to get out of the post-COVID rut and seems to need a spark of some sort. A change could provide the spark needed to get the program moving more rapidly in a positive direction.

• There’s a concerning pattern of poor defense, PK, and goaltending the past couple years after that used to be a strength. Even after adding 3 transfer dmen in the portal, it was still a weakness this season.

• They’re probably more reliant on the portal than they should be. It made sense that they had to use it a ton during COVID and right after COVID when the administration caused most of the team to leave. That’s past the program now though, and it still gets used a lot. Is that the new normal in college sports and the way it’ll be regardless, or should they seek more balance?

• Puck possession has been a weakness the past couple years. It was pretty solid in 19-20 and 21-22, but the downturn in results has coincided with not as good puck possession, even though it improved this season.

• The forward pipeline looks just okay right now. Kyrkostas and Ziliotto look good. Lariviere and Shaw need another year of junior hockey but could be good as well. Oakenfold and Janus are bottom 6 guys (which you do need), but they could probably use some more talent at the top of the forward pipeline.

Against making a change:

• This is a good, young core that has the potential to turn into a great one. They will likely lose the vast majority of it to the portal if there’s a change, and they’ll be forced to start over.

  • Tapper, Caron, Tinling, Hotson, and Rullers are up front with Kyrkostas and Ziliotto looking like good pieces to join them. Gilson and Smolinski are on the blue line with Lemieux, Adrian, Klassek, and Hilditch looking like good pieces to join them.

• There were extensive injuries this year. If they were more healthy, they are probably at least 3 wins better, if not more, and they certainly would have been top 8 at minimum. That’s a conservative estimate as well.

  • They missed 2/3 of the projected top line basically the entire year. Tonelli played like 3 minutes in the exhibition game and had to retire from hockey. Muzzatti was a shell of himself when he came back from offseason surgery and only had a handful of games until he went out for the year. They both would have helped offensively, defensively and on special teams since both of them play in all situations. Strom played 6 games and went out for the year; he probably could have helped defensively. Bourgault missed the entire year after the exhibition and would have been a good piece in the bottom 6 and on the PK based on how he looked in that game.

• The blue line pipeline is extremely strong. Lemieux is an excellent prospect. Adrian and Hilditch have both dealt with injuries this year but project as top 4 defensemen. Klassek looks like he has talent as well, and Matthews should be good after another year of junior hockey. Defending has been their biggest weakness, and the recruits look well-stocked to fix that issue.

• With the change to the CHL rules, it’s extremely important to have a coach with connections there as CHL recruiting will be the primary path for RPI competing nationally (I’ll expand on this in a future post that I have planned). They need a coach who can recruit there, and that will be a strength of Coach Smith.

  • I know currently they only have Krawchuk committed, but across college hockey, there’s a lot of private commitments from CHL players who are waiting until after the season to make it public. I’d be shocked if that’s not the case with RPI.

• Making a change without administrative and resource commitments will do absolutely nothing. If they’re going to make a change, the ducks need to be in a row behind the scenes in terms of resources.

  • Look at Miami. They moved to the NCHC, didn’t support the program well, and it took a downturn. They fired Rico Blasi and hired an alum in Chris Bergeron, which was considered a home-run after he brought Bowling Green back to national competitiveness. They changed nothing behind the scenes, and Bergeron failed and was fired last year. Bergeron is an objectively good coach; bringing Bowling Green back was not easy. Good coaches can fail too if you don’t give them proper support. Let’s not be Miami.

• The majority of the program’s issues are not on Coach Smith. It’s not his fault the administration had the most harmful COVID policies in the country, and most of the downturn isn’t on him. He is not blameless (as we went over in the section above), but the percentage of the blame that goes to him is not very high. Would this be a classic coach scapegoat situation?

Overall, I think there are good arguments for both sides, and the list was pretty even when thinking about the long term. I see both sides, and I respect whichever opinion you choose to take. We’ll just have to wait and see what happens.

A lot of bullet points had to do with the administration and resources, and to me, this is way more important than what is done at head coach. That brings me to the next part of this.

Administrative and Resources Thoughts

What will really dictate this program’s future is Dr. Schmidt and Dr. Bowers and what resources and support the program can be given.

This is another spot where I’m not going to beat around the bush. Shirley treated this like another D3 program for 20 years. There’s a reason that the program’s downturn began in the early 2000s shortly after she took over.

Then, she basically drove a sword through the program’s chest with COVID policies and other decisions around that time.

1. Cancelled the 2020-21 season of course

2. Locked the players out of all facilities entirely with no practices allowed, the only program in the country to do that as far as we know

3. Furloughed all the assistant coaches. Not sure if any other programs did this, but this led directly to Scott Moser leaving for UVM

4. At the end of the year, they wouldn’t even guarantee playing in 2021-22, which led to another flurry of player departures

5. Didn’t allow fans in 2021-22, the only program in the country to do that

6. Let Coach Smith’s contract expire, further hurting recruiting and causing even more questions about commitment at the top

I don’t think anyone would succeed in that environment, and there’s no question that the best thing for RPI hockey is that Shirley retired and Dr. Schmidt has replaced her.

For this current administration, I do believe they are committed to hockey. There’s a few reasons why.

1. They immediately approved adding a 3rd assistant when that became an option

2. Hiring Dr. Bowers from a hockey powerhouse in BU shows what the focus is in athletics

3. The HFH feasibility study for either doing major renovations to the rink or building a new one means they want to invest in the facilities

There are a few areas that are concerning though. The HFH feasibility study was a great step, but we have heard nothing about it in a little while. My best guess is it’s still ongoing behind the scenes, and they’re trying to be thorough to make sure they get this right, which would be a good thing. The issue is the lack of communication. We don’t know if that’s the case, or what the deal is. We shouldn’t have radio silence on it; we should have the occasional public update to keep fans informed.

Additionally, the social media presence is abysmal. I don’t think I need to elaborate too much; it’s that bad. Consistent posting during games, interviews, behind the scenes footage, promotions, stats, highlights, etc. are all necessary for a D1 program, and they do none of it. This goes hand in hand with community outreach, branding, marketing, etc. which all also seem to be poor. I can’t say for sure on that front since I’m not in the Troy area, so feel free to correct me there in the comments if I’m wrong.

It’s still early on in their tenure, and it takes time to get change going after 20+ years of neglecting the program. I’m still hopeful we will see changes in these areas; Dr. Bowers knows what it takes to run a top program.

How does this team get into a winning position?

Now, it’s onto the meat of this piece. What does this offseason look like for the staff in terms of the team on the ice? Let’s take a look.

Forwards

Hotson - Tinling - Caron

x - Kyrkostas - Tapper

x - Rullers - Ziliotto

Bourgault - McNeil - Payant

Sullivan, Janus, Oakenfold

This is what we’re looking like at forward currently. Returning 4 forwards with 20+ points is a big boon to the top 6. Kyrkostas should be able to slot right into the 2nd or 3rd line. Since he’s young, it’d be ideal for him to start on the 3rd line and work his way up like Caron and did Tapper did this year. Ziliotto has had a good year and should be a good option on the 3rd line. He’s a center, but they have too many centers so he’ll probably have to start on the wing.

You might notice I have not included Muzzatti here. Ever since he was drafted, I have expected that he would not stay all 4 years and get signed. His injury filled year makes it more likely that he stays, but here’s the thing: he can become a free agent this summer if Nashville doesn’t sign him. Despite his injuries, I can see them still pushing to sign him to avoid that, so I’m not counting on him returning. If he does return, that’s just gravy on top.

This is a good core and a good top 9 so far. Without Muzzatti, the team could use a couple of forwards on the left side. These will likely be filled through the portal and through CHL players. It’s only a couple spots, so I feel good about this forward group. They were able to score this season and had good depth.

These young players should improve as well, both offensively and defensively. The defensive improvement is very needed obviously. For as talented as these guys are, it’s imperative they develop more of a two way game as a lot of them are giving back more than they’re scoring.

Caron and Tapper had 20+ points each, the first pair of RPI freshmen to do that since Pirri and D’Amigo! They are very exciting pieces for the next few years.

These cards are from

Sean

at

6on5

. I’d highly recommend checking him out; he has some great weekend previews and writeups on college hockey.

Defensemen

Lemieux - Gilson

x - Smolinski

Klassek - Goffredo

Ozolins

Maguire, Matta

I project that both Adrian and Hilditch are going back to junior hockey after they have both been injured for the vast majority of the year. It’s possible one comes in, but I’d be really surprised if both did.

This blue line core looks pretty good. Gilson was one of the best dmen in the ECAC and should make an all-league team if the coaches are smart. He’s elite offensively and while he’s slightly below average defensively, it doesn’t detract from the overall body of work.

Smolinski has settled into a nice groove a second pairing defender who can produce offensively. He still sometimes tries to make too many plays and do too much and turnover the puck, but his defense has steadily improved. If he can take another step forward defensively, he could really be a luxury on the second pairing.

Lucas Lemieux will come in and should be ready to play top 4 minutes immediately as a freshman. He is one of the best defensemen in the entire BCHL this season. He has size, skating, skill and a great shot to produce offensively. Defensively, he uses his size and skating to have strong gaps and disrupt plays. Getting a two way guy like him in the top 4 should help on the back end. I don’t think he will fully replace what McDermott brought to the table since he will just be a freshman, but I expect him to have a strong year.

That leaves one gap in the top 4 on the left side, and my guess is the portal will be used here. The left side is pretty young with Lemieux and Klassek as freshmen, and Ozolins and Maguire as sophomores. I’d assume they want some experience in that spot. Ideally this can be a more defensively minded option. I think Gilson, Smolinski, and Lemieux have enough offense that they can go this route without sacrificing there. Even Goffredo on the bottom pairing moves the puck well enough and has some offense too.

Bergmanis was a huge disappointment for me this season. He was widely considered one of the top defensemen in the portal, but he was awful in his own end. His offensive game was solid but didn’t make up the gap. That’s part of why I want the more defensive option there; I don’t want the same mistake to be made.

The bottom pairing of Ozolins and Goffredo should be effective. Goffredo can be good in a bottom pairing role on a good team as he continues to develop, while Ozolins was really solid defensively in his freshman year. Both are young and should improve too.

That leaves Klassek, who seems good and like he could compete for a third pairing role. He should be valuable depth as someone who might start lower in the lineup but has the potential to be higher. Maguire and Matta should be depth guys once again.

Goaltending

The goaltending was slightly better this year compared to last. Overall, they let in 14 more goals than expected for the season. Last year, that number was 20. It’s still well below average, and it definitely continued to be an issue for the team.

For next year, RPI returns Dorfman as the third goalie, and they bring in Nate Krawchuk who is a great OHL goalie. He is a great pickup who should be a long term #1 in the net even if he’s not right away. To join him, I expect they’ll get a transfer. Regardless of who they get there, I feel better about the net next season with Krawchuk in the fold.